Lisbon & Portugal
Housing Market Monitor. Q3 2026.
A quarterly, buyer-side read of the market: what prices and sales are doing, where Lisbon is cheaper or dearer, what a mortgage costs now, and which 2026 rule changes move your numbers. Every figure is sourced and dated. We have no property to sell you.
Prices still rising fast. Everything around them is cooling.
- Prices are up 16.5% on a year ago, but growth has slowed for two quarters running (from 18.9% at the end of 2025). Existing homes are rising faster (+18.0%) than new builds (+12.3%).
- Fewer homes are changing hands. Sales fell for a third quarter in a row (−6.4% in Q2). The record value of sales is now driven by price, not volume.
- Borrowing got dearer and harder. The ECB raised rates in June and September, the average new mortgage rate is back at 3.00%, and since 1 August Banco de Portugal caps repayments at 45% of net income (was 50%).
- Foreign buyers are pulling back. Buyers with a tax address abroad bought 4.7% of homes in Q2, down 10% on a year ago. Since 25 May, non-residents pay a flat 7.5% IMT.
- Our read for buyers: more room to negotiate than a year ago, especially on homes that have sat on the market (in Lisbon, sellers now cut prices 2.6 times for every rise), but no sign of a price fall: new supply is still thin, at about 7,400 new homes completed in Q2.
Still double-digit, now decelerating.
Portuguese house prices rose 16.5% in the year to Q2 2026 and 3.6% in the quarter. That is still one of the fastest rates in the euro area, but it is the second quarter of slower growth after the 18.9% peak at the end of 2025.
See the numbers
| Quarter | Year on year | Quarter on quarter |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 24 | +7.0% | +0.6% |
| Q2 24 | +7.8% | +3.9% |
| Q3 24 | +9.8% | +3.7% |
| Q4 24 | +11.6% | +3.0% |
| Q1 25 | +16.3% | +4.8% |
| Q2 25 | +17.2% | +4.8% |
| Q3 25 | +17.7% | +4.1% |
| Q4 25 | +18.9% | +4.0% |
| Q1 26 | +17.8% | +3.8% |
| Q2 26 | +16.5% | +3.6% |
The gap between existing homes (+18.0% a year) and new builds (+12.3%) matters for buyers: the resale market, where most Lisbon purchases happen, is where prices are running hottest.
Volumes are falling. Value holds up only because of price.
2025 was a record: 169,812 homes sold for €41.2 billion. Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the number of sales has fallen year on year three times in a row, while the value of sales still grows slightly.
See the numbers
| Quarter | Homes sold | y/y | Value | y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 24 | 33,077 | −4.1% | €6.7bn | −1.8% |
| Q2 24 | 37,125 | +10.4% | €7.9bn | +14.1% |
| Q3 24 | 40,909 | +19.4% | €9.1bn | +28.0% |
| Q4 24 | 45,214 | +32.5% | €10.2bn | +41.8% |
| Q1 25 | 41,358 | +25.0% | €9.6bn | +42.9% |
| Q2 25 | 42,889 | +15.5% | €10.3bn | +30.4% |
| Q3 25 | 42,481 | +3.8% | €10.5bn | +16.0% |
| Q4 25 | 43,084 | −4.7% | €10.8bn | +5.9% |
| Q1 26 | 37,745 | −8.7% | €9.9bn | +3.2% |
| Q2 26 | 40,142 | −6.4% | €10.7bn | +4.2% |
What it means for a buyer: falling volumes with rising prices usually signal a market where sellers still ask high prices but fewer buyers can meet them. That is when negotiation pays: listings that have been on sale for months, and sellers who have already cut once, are the place to push.
A €3,250/m² gap inside one city.
The median Lisbon sale price in the 12 months to March 2026 was €5,082/m², up 15.2%. Inside the city, the range runs from €3,733/m² in Santa Clara to €6,986/m² in Santo António. The city average says little about any one street.
See the numbers
| Parish | €/m² | y/y |
|---|---|---|
| Santo António | €6,986 | n/a |
| Parque das Nações | €6,407 | n/a |
| Avenidas Novas | €6,000 | n/a |
| Campo de Ourique | €5,979 | n/a |
| Misericórdia | €5,913 | n/a |
| Estrela | €5,833 | n/a |
| Belém | €5,498 | n/a |
| Campolide | €5,486 | n/a |
| São Domingos de Benfica | €5,182 | n/a |
| Ajuda | €5,161 | +23.9% |
| Alvalade | €5,041 | n/a |
| Marvila | €5,008 | −0.4% |
| Santa Maria Maior | €5,000 | −0.5% |
| Areeiro | €4,963 | n/a |
| São Vicente | €4,954 | n/a |
| Alcântara | €4,938 | n/a |
| Arroios | €4,776 | n/a |
| Lumiar | €4,670 | +17.5% |
| Benfica | €4,631 | +15.3% |
| Beato | €4,600 | n/a |
| Carnide | €4,553 | n/a |
| Penha de França | €4,465 | +19.2% |
| Olivais | €4,296 | +16.1% |
| Santa Clara | €3,733 | n/a |
Three things stand out
- The historic centre has stalled. Santa Maria Maior (−0.5%) and Marvila (−0.4%) were flat or slightly down, while the city rose 15%. Very high entry prices and the limits on new short-term lets in the centre are the likely brakes.
- The outer parishes are catching up. Ajuda (+23.9%), Penha de França (+19.2%), Lumiar (+17.5%), Olivais (+16.1%) and Benfica (+15.3%) all beat the city average. Buyers priced out of the centre appear to be moving one ring out.
- Foreign buyers pay more for the same city. In Lisbon, buyers with a tax address abroad paid a median €6,325/m², against €5,000/m² for residents: 26% more, most likely because they concentrate on the most expensive parishes and newer homes.
See the numbers
| Municipality | €/m² | y/y |
|---|---|---|
| Lisboa | €5,082 | +15.2% |
| Cascais | €4,687 | +11.9% |
| Oeiras | €4,297 | +18.0% |
| Porto | €3,510 | +16.7% |
| Odivelas | €3,462 | +20.4% |
| Almada | €3,267 | +19.1% |
| Loures | €3,191 | +17.9% |
| Amadora | €3,143 | +22.4% |
| Sintra | €2,908 | +26.6% |
| Seixal | €2,800 | +24.3% |
Around Lisbon, the fastest growth is in the cheaper ring: Sintra (+26.6%), Seixal (+24.3%) and Amadora (+22.4%). Cascais grew least (+11.9%), from a higher base.
INE publishes Q2 2026 local prices on 23 October 2026. We will update this section then.
Sellers are cutting. Asking prices have stalled.
Official data shows what homes sold for months ago. Listings show what sellers are doing now. Across the roughly 9,474 apartments on sale in Lisbon between July and October 2026, sellers cut prices 2,555 times and raised them 990 times: 2.6 cuts for every rise.
Asking prices for Lisbon apartments rose only about 3% in the past year, while recorded sale prices were still rising around 15%. When asking prices stop climbing and cuts outnumber rises by more than two to one, recorded sale prices usually slow a few months later. It is the clearest sign in this Monitor that the market is turning in the buyer's favour.
See the numbers, with asking prices
| Parish | Asking €/m² (Jul–Oct 2026) | Sale €/m² (INE, 12m to Mar 2026) | Apartments listed | Price cuts / listings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santo António | €7,761 | €6,986 | 630 | 34% |
| Misericórdia | €6,979 | €5,913 | 692 | 27% |
| Campo de Ourique | €6,891 | €5,979 | 325 | 30% |
| Estrela | €6,856 | €5,833 | 594 | 24% |
| Avenidas Novas | €6,851 | €6,000 | 502 | 24% |
| Santa Maria Maior | €6,778 | €5,000 | 786 | 22% |
| Parque das Nações | €6,588 | €6,407 | 335 | 20% |
| Belém | €6,341 | €5,498 | 220 | 23% |
| Campolide | €6,264 | €5,486 | 242 | 31% |
| Alcântara | €6,161 | €4,938 | 231 | 26% |
| Alvalade | €5,987 | €5,041 | 323 | 22% |
| São Vicente | €5,874 | €4,954 | 568 | 35% |
| Benfica | €5,734 | €4,631 | 678 | 33% |
| Arroios | €5,641 | €4,776 | 923 | 27% |
| Ajuda | €5,579 | €5,161 | 143 | 20% |
| São Domingos de Benfica | €5,509 | €5,182 | 349 | 23% |
| Penha de França | €5,283 | €4,465 | 491 | 36% |
| Areeiro | €5,267 | €4,963 | 221 | 18% |
| Carnide | €5,188 | €4,553 | 74 | 16% |
| Beato | €5,097 | €4,600 | 153 | 33% |
| Lumiar | €5,097 | €4,670 | 328 | 21% |
| Olivais | €4,920 | €4,296 | 345 | 28% |
| Marvila | €4,771 | €5,008 | 194 | 20% |
| Santa Clara | €4,140 | €3,733 | 127 | 20% |
Asking prices are averages of current listings; INE sale prices are medians of deeds from an earlier period. The two are not directly comparable, and the difference overstates the room to negotiate. We will compare like with like when INE publishes Q2 2026 local prices on 23 October.
Where to push hardest
- Most cuts: Penha de França (36%), São Vicente (35%), Santo António (34%), Benfica and Beato (33%). These are the parishes where sellers have most often had to come down.
- Fewest cuts: Carnide (16%), Areeiro (18%), Ajuda, Lumiar, Parque das Nações and Marvila (20–21%). Sellers here are holding firm, so expect less room.
- Biggest stock: Arroios (923 apartments), Santa Maria Maior (786) and Misericórdia (692) have the most choice on the market.
Rents rise slower than prices. Yields keep shrinking.
Lisbon rents for new leases rose 5.1% in a year, a third of the pace of prices. A rough gross yield of about 4% (12 months of median rent, 12 × €17.43, against the median sale price of €5,082/m², both on a 12-month basis) means Lisbon is a capital-growth market, not an income one. Buying to let only works on the right asset at the right price, usually outside the prime parishes. The new 10% rate on rents up to €2,300 a month helps net returns and, for non-residents, letting at that level within six months is one of the two ways to recover the extra IMT.
Sources: INE rents for new lease contracts, Q2 2026 (via ECO and Observador, 29 Sep 2026); Decreto-Lei 97/2026.
More homes licensed, still a trickle.
In Q2 2026, 11,800 new homes were licensed (+10.8% y/y) and 7,400 completed (+11.6%). That is rising from a low base and small against roughly 40,000 sales a quarter, most of them existing homes. From 1 July, VAT on building or renovating qualifying homes fell to 6%, which should help, but completions take two to four years to respond. New supply will not bring prices down in the next year.
Source: INE construction statistics, Q2 2026 (via idealista and ECO, 11 Sep 2026); Decreto-Lei 97/2026.
Dearer money, tighter rules.
| Rate | Level | Date |
|---|---|---|
| ECB deposit rate | 2.50% | Raised 11 Jun and 10 Sep 2026 |
| Euribor 3 months | 2.602% | 7 Oct 2026 |
| Euribor 6 months | 2.954% | 7 Oct 2026 |
| Euribor 12 months | 3.177% | 7 Oct 2026 |
| Average rate, new home loans | 3.00% | Aug 2026 (2.88% a year earlier) |
| Mixed-rate share of new loans | 87% | Aug 2026, average 2.86% |
| Banco de Portugal rule (from 1 Aug 2026) | Setting |
|---|---|
| Maximum loan-to-value | 90% own home · 80% other |
| Repayments vs net income (DSTI) | 45% max (was 50%) |
| Stress test on the rate | +1.5 points (loans over 10 years) |
| Maximum term | 40 years if 35 or under · 35 years otherwise |
| State guarantee, buyers 35 or under | Up to 100% financing, contracts until 31 Dec 2026 |
What this means in euros
A €400,000 home bought as your own home with a 90% loan (€360,000) over 30 years costs about €1,518 a month at 3.0%. The bank must check you could still pay at 4.5%: about €1,824 a month. Under the 45% limit, that points to a household net income of roughly €4,050 a month or more, before any other loans. Stretching to 40 years (only if 35 or under) lowers the payment to about €1,289, but adds years of interest.
Watch the calendar: the ECB meets on 28–29 October and 17 December. The state guarantee for young buyers covers contracts signed until 31 December 2026, and 56% of its budget had been used by mid-year. Expect a rush of young buyers before year end.
Sources: ECB press release 10 Sep 2026; Euribor via ComparaJá, 7 Oct 2026; Banco de Portugal new-loan statistics, Aug 2026 (via ECO and DN, 1 Oct 2026); Banco de Portugal Recommendation 1/2026 (via ECO, 2 Jul 2026); idealista on the state guarantee, 29 Jul 2026. Payments are our calculation, annuity basis, before insurance and fees.
Seven changes that move a buyer's numbers.
| Change | What it is | Why it matters to you |
|---|---|---|
| IMT for non-residents | Flat 7.5% on residential purchases by buyers who are not, and never were, Portuguese tax residents. From 25 May 2026. | Refunded down to the normal rates if you become resident within 2 years, or let at up to €2,300/month within 6 months, for 36 months. Claim within 6 months. |
| IMT Jovem | Buyers 35 or under, first own home: no IMT or stamp duty up to €330,539; 8% only on the part between €330,539 and €660,982. | Worth about €12,900 in IMT and stamp duty on a €300,000 home. |
| Mortgage limits | Repayments capped at 45% of net income (was 50%); term up to 40 years if 35 or under, 35 otherwise. From 1 Aug 2026. | Plan your budget around the stressed payment, not today's. |
| Rental income tax | 10% on leases up to €2,300/month, for 2026 to 2029 (normal rate 25%). | Improves net yields on mid-market lets. |
| VAT on construction | 6% on building or renovating homes for permanent residence up to €660,982, or for rent up to €2,300/month. From 1 Jul 2026. | Lowers renovation budgets on qualifying projects. |
| Citizenship | Now 10 years of legal residence (7 for EU and Portuguese-speaking countries). In force 19 May 2026. | A longer path for buyers planning a move for a second passport. |
| Golden Visa | Property route closed since October 2023. Main route: €500,000 in qualifying investment funds; funds investing in real estate do not qualify. | Buying a home no longer leads to residency on its own. |
Sources: Decreto-Lei 97/2026; Banco de Portugal Recommendation 1/2026; Lei Orgânica 1/2026 (Ministry of Justice); Lei 56/2023. This is general information, not tax or legal advice.
The same home, four different tax bills.
Taxes paid at purchase (IMT, the property transfer tax, plus 0.8% stamp duty), by buyer type. They now depend on who you are as much as on the price. Mainland Portugal, 2026 tables.
How IMT Jovem works (buyers 35 or under, first permanent home): up to €330,539 you pay nothing. Between €330,539 and €660,982 you pay 8% IMT and 0.8% stamp duty only on the part above €330,539, so €13,557 + €1,356 on a €500,000 home. Above €660,982 the relief disappears completely and you pay the same as any resident buying their own home. Non-residents pay a flat 7.5% IMT on the whole price, refundable down to the normal rates if they become resident within two years. Above €1,150,853 everyone pays the same 7.5%.
| Price | First home, 35 or under | Own home | Second home or investment | Non-resident |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| €300,000 | €0 IMT €0 + stamp €0 | €12,942 IMT €10,542 + stamp €2,400 | €14,006 IMT €11,606 + stamp €2,400 | €24,900 IMT €22,500 + stamp €2,400 |
| €500,000 | €14,913 IMT €13,557 + stamp €1,356 | €30,237 IMT €26,237 + stamp €4,000 | €31,300 IMT €27,300 + stamp €4,000 | €41,500 IMT €37,500 + stamp €4,000 |
| €800,000 | €54,400 IMT €48,000 + stamp €6,400 | €54,400 IMT €48,000 + stamp €6,400 | €54,400 IMT €48,000 + stamp €6,400 | €66,400 IMT €60,000 + stamp €6,400 |
| €1,500,000 | €124,500 IMT €112,500 + stamp €12,000 | €124,500 IMT €112,500 + stamp €12,000 | €124,500 IMT €112,500 + stamp €12,000 | €124,500 IMT €112,500 + stamp €12,000 |
Our calculation from the 2026 IMT tables (CIMT art. 17) and DL 97/2026. Excludes stamp duty on the mortgage (0.6% of the loan), notary, registry and legal fees. For any other price: IMT calculator.
Four buyers, four different playbooks.
First-time buyer, 35 or under
Your window is now: IMT Jovem plus the state guarantee (contracts until 31 Dec 2026) can save around €13,000 in tax on a €300,000 home and remove the deposit problem. Get mortgage approval first; the 45% limit is checked at a stressed rate. Look one ring out (Penha de França, Olivais, Lumiar, Benfica, or Amadora and Odivelas), where your budget goes furthest.
Family buying or upgrading
Lower volumes favour you. Target homes listed for 60+ days and negotiate from the parish median, not the asking price. If you are selling too, sell first or agree both deals together: you do not want to carry two homes with rates rising.
Moving to Portugal from abroad
Sequence it. If you buy before becoming tax resident, you pay 7.5% IMT up front (€37,500 on €500,000) and must claim the difference back within the deadlines. Becoming resident first, or renting for the first months, often costs less. Check what your visa and tax regime (D7, D8, IFICI) require before you sign.
Investor
Prime Lisbon yields around 4% gross do not pay for the risk on their own. The case is capital growth plus the right asset: mid-market lets under €2,300 a month (10% tax), renovations that qualify for 6% VAT, or the outer parishes where rents and prices have room to grow. For income, compare with regulated property funds.
Our base case: slower growth, not a fall.
Price growth keeps slowing as rates and the new credit limits bite; sales stay below 2025. Supply stays short, so prices do not fall. Confidence: moderate.
The ECB pauses or cuts in 2027, the young-buyer guarantee is extended, and foreign demand recovers. Growth stays in double digits.
More ECB hikes, a sharper drop in sales and job losses. Lisbon's most expensive parishes would correct first. Low probability over 12 months, but rising.
The risks we watch
- Valuation. The European Commission estimated Portuguese homes were about 35% overvalued (2024 data). The IMF (September 2026) says prices "seem elevated", up 169% since 2015 against 55% in the euro area. Banco de Portugal calls a price correction its main domestic risk.
- Credit. Each further ECB hike and the 45% repayment cap shrink the pool of buyers who can borrow.
- The guarantee cliff. If the young-buyer guarantee is not extended beyond 31 December 2026, demand at the lower end could drop in early 2027.
Scenarios are Lisbonest Research's judgement, not a forecast you should rely on. Sources: European Commission (via ECO, 15 Oct 2025); IMF FSAP (via idealista, 22 Sep 2026); Banco de Portugal Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (via Observador).
Dates to watch
| Date | What |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | INE local prices, Q2 2026 (Lisbon parishes) |
| 28–29 Oct 2026 | ECB rate decision |
| 17 Dec 2026 | ECB rate decision |
| Late Dec 2026 | INE house price index and sales, Q3 2026 · next edition of this Monitor |
| 31 Dec 2026 | Last day for contracts under the young-buyer state guarantee |
Want this for one street, not the whole city?
Send us the listing or the address. We will tell you how its price compares with recent sales in that parish, what you would really pay in tax, and where there is room to negotiate. Free, and we never act for the seller.
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Mercado Lisboa is our short monthly note: the month's numbers, three properties worth a look, and one buyer question answered. The Capital Report covers private wealth and funds, every two months.
SubscribePrices are INE medians of actual sale prices (not asking prices) unless stated. "12 months to March 2026" figures smooth out quarterly noise; single-quarter figures are labelled. Where INE data reaches us through a third party, we say so. Lisbonest Research is the research function of Lisbonest (Narrativa Credível Unipessoal, Lda., AMI 22293). This Monitor is general information, not investment, tax or legal advice.
- INE house price index and sales, Q2 2026 (Notícias ao Minuto, 22 Sep 2026)
- INE Q2 2026 release (RTP, 22 Sep 2026)
- AICCOPN tables of INE data, June 2026
- Non-resident buyers, Q2 2026 (Observador, 22 Sep 2026)
- INE local house prices, Q1 2026 (bulletin, 17 Jul 2026)
- Lisbon parish medians, compiled from INE · municipal medians, compiled from INE
- INE rents, Q2 2026 (ECO, 29 Sep 2026)
- ECB monetary policy decision, 10 Sep 2026
- Banco de Portugal new mortgage rates, Aug 2026 (ECO, 1 Oct 2026)
- Banco de Portugal credit limits from 1 Aug 2026 (ECO)
- State guarantee for young buyers (idealista, 29 Jul 2026)
- INE licensing and completions, Q2 2026 (idealista)
- Decreto-Lei 97/2026 timeline (idealista)
- Nationality law, in force 19 May 2026 (Ministry of Justice)
- European Commission overvaluation estimate (ECO) · IMF FSAP (idealista)